Uncertainty analysis of climate projections in relation to historical contributions in the Júcar River Basin

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on the future contributions of the Júcar River Basin (eastern Spain) and the uncertainty associated to them, which in this case is referred to that derived from the decision taken in the handling of climate projections during the entire evaluation process. For this purpose, meteorological variables were selected from 9 Regional Climate Models belonging to the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Then, they were bias corrected and introduced into a hydrological model for the simulation of flows. Finally, the effect of climate change was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. Depending on the historical data we manage, the change in future flows can range from an average of -8% to -28% by the end of the century. However, if the possibility of comparing them with a period that represents the current situation of the basin is considered, this change is estimated between -8% and -13%, thus allowing more concrete conclusions about the future of water resources in this basin.

Keywords

• cuenca del júcar
• cambio climático
• incertidumbre
• aportaciones futuras
• modelo hidrológico