Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation.

Keywords

• air temperature
• atmospheric circulation
• climate forecast system
• environment monitoring
• precipitations anomalies
• accuracy of forecasts