Natural gas in China: Development trend and strategic forecast

Abstract

Based upon an analysis of global energy developing trend, a discussion was made on the natural gas developing trend in China with the following pre-estimating results from multiple perspectives. (1) Natural gas will be strongly demanded and in 2050 it will be up to 650–700 billion cubic meters (bcm). (2) The high-medium-low peaking scenarios of natural gas production rate in 2030 will be 180 bcm, 200 bcm and 220 bcm, respectively. (3) Up till now, the supply capacity of inland pipeline gas will be about 160 bcm. (4) LNG will be the main approach to filling the gap in the natural gas demand. (5) When the peak value of domestic production and pipeline gas is definite, LNG and storage gas will play an important role in the whole natural gas industrial chain in the future. Also, according to the basic condition of China, the strategies for future natural gas development were presented as follows: to enhance the capabilities of domestic gas productivity, pipeline transportation, gas storage (such as LNG terminals, UGS, etc.); to set up an early warning system for oil & gas peak security consumption with detailed supply and demand information based upon AI technology and big data analysis; to make breakthroughs in coal cleaning and new energy production technologies for lack of non-renewable oil and gas resources; and to get a better understanding of global energy developing trend and have an omni-direction strategic layout for national energy security thus to quicken the pace of a new tripartite confrontation era of coal, petroleum and new energy sources. Keywords: China, Conventional natural gas, Unconventional natural gas, Tight gas, Shale gas, Coalbed methane gas, Pipeline gas, LNG, Underground gas storage, Coal cleaning, New energy