Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models

Abstract

The identification of the biogeophysical effects due to land-use, land-cover, and land- management changes (LULCC) is yet to be clearly understood. A range of factors, such as the inclusion of an interactive ocean model component, representation of land management, transient LULCC, and accountability for atmospheric feedback, potentially shifts how models may detect the impacts of the land surface on the climate system. Previous studies on the biogeophysical effects of LULCC in South Asia have either neglected one of those factors or are single model results. Therefore, we analyzed the outputs from 11 models, participants of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in its Sixth Phase (CMIP6), which derived from experiments with and without LULCC and compared the two simulations with respect to changes in near-surface temperature and total precipitation means. The CMIP6 simulations, to a certain extent, accounted for the elements previously overlooked. We examined the grid cells that robustly indicated a climatic impact from LULCC. Additionally, we investigated the atmospheric feedback and the dominant fluxes with their associated land surface variables involved in the changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results indicated that the biogeophysical effects from LULCC favored surface net cooling and surface net drying over the robust areas at all seasons. The surface net cooling was strongly influenced by the decrease in available energy and the increase in latent heat and total evapotranspiration. Surface net drying was highly promoted by local hydrological processes, especially in areas outside the monsoon core. The study also revealed that non-local sources might influence precipitation in some parts of South Asia, although this was inconclusive. Our research presented similar results to previous studies but with different magnitudes, which highlighted the added value of CMIP6-GCMs simulations but also their pitfalls.

Keywords

• land use
• land management
• land-use modeling
• biogeophysical effects
• South Asia
• CMIP6