Research on precipitation process identification method based on hourly resolution

Abstract

Heavy rainfall is easy to cause rainstorm disaster, especially the sudden short-time heavy precipitation. Dynamic monitoring, impact assessment and risk estimation are important means of disaster prevention. However, in the current meteorological services, the quantitative assessment and risk estimation of heavy precipitation are still based on days, so the refined needs of modern meteorological services urgently need to improve the time resolution to the order of hours. This paper, by using 1951-2018 national meteorological observation station hour rainfall observation data, defines the sites, large area, small area precipitation process identification method from the hour scale. Based on the improved comprehensive strength evaluation method of precipitation process and using the probability density distribution, the comprehensive intensity index of precipitation process is reclassified into five grades: extreme, extra heavy, strong, relatively strong and medium. Inspection result display that automatic extraction of precipitation process based on hourly resolution and evaluation method are reasonable and operable, can support real-time meteorological services by dynamic evaluation and pre-evaluation of precipitation process and short-term rainfall, improve the capacity of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction, and also establish the foundation for the impact assessment and risk estimation of short-time heavy precipitation in the future.

Keywords

• hourly resolution
• precipitation process
• comprehensive intensity index
• evaluation