Towards understanding potential atmospheric contributions to abrupt climate changes: characterizing changes to the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet over the last deglaciation

Abstract

Abrupt climate shifts of large amplitudes were common features of the Earth's climate as it transitioned into and out of the last full glacial state approximately 20 000 years ago, but their causes are not yet established. Midlatitude atmospheric dynamics may have played an important role in these climate variations through their effects on heat and precipitation distributions, sea ice extent, and wind-driven ocean circulation patterns. This study characterizes deglacial winter wind changes over the North Atlantic (NAtl) in a suite of transient deglacial simulations using the PlaSim Earth system model (run at T42 resolution) and the TraCE-21ka (T31) simulation. Though driven with yearly updates in surface elevation, we detect multiple instances of NAtl jet transitions in the PlaSim simulations that occur within 10 simulation years and a sensitivity of the jet to background climate conditions. Thus, we suggest that changes to the NAtl jet may play an important role in abrupt glacial climate changes. We identify two types of simulated wind changes over the last deglaciation. Firstly, the latitude of the NAtl eddy-driven jet shifts northward over the deglaciation in a sequence of distinct steps. Secondly, the variability in the NAtl jet gradually shifts from a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) state with a strongly preferred jet latitude and a restricted latitudinal range to one with no single preferred latitude and a range that is at least 11∘ broader. These changes can significantly affect ocean circulation. Changes to the position of the NAtl jet alter the location of the wind forcing driving oceanic surface gyres and the limits of sea ice extent, whereas a shift to a more variable jet reduces the effectiveness of the wind forcing at driving surface ocean transports. The processes controlling these two types of changes differ on the upstream and downstream ends of the NAtl eddy-driven jet. On the upstream side over eastern North America, the elevated ice sheet margin acts as a barrier to the winds in both the PlaSim simulations and the TraCE-21ka experiment. This constrains both the position and the latitudinal variability in the jet at LGM, so the jet shifts in sync with ice sheet margin changes. In contrast, the downstream side over the eastern NAtl is more sensitive to the thermal state of the background climate. Our results suggest that the presence of an elevated ice sheet margin in the south-eastern sector of the North American ice complex strongly constrains the deglacial position of the jet over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic as well as its variability.