Uncertainty Analysis of Ultimate Strength for Spherical Shells Subjected to External Pressure

Abstract

To evaluate the stochastic characteristics of ultimate strength for spherical shells subjected to external pressure, uncertainty analysis is conducted in this study. Experimental measurements and result analysis of dimensions, as well as ultimate strength, are performed. The basic theories of the surrogate model and probability-box method for ultimate strength are introduced briefly. Uncertainty analysis of ultimate strength is completed utilizing double-nested random sampling based on the established Gaussian process model with high precision, and the results are compared with the experimental findings. The results show that the experimental empirical cumulative distribution function is contained in the probability-box obtained while considering the influence of welding, and the absolute errors of the mean value, as well as those of the standard deviation, are much smaller. The study verified that the influence of welding cannot be ignored, and the prediction of ultimate strength, considering uncertainties, can eliminate the occasionalities of simulations and experimental tests.

Keywords

• uncertainty analysis
• ultimate strength
• spherical shell
• probability-box
• welding