Recent improvements and maximum covariance analysis of aerosol and cloud properties in the EC-Earth3-AerChem model

Abstract

Given the importance of aerosols and clouds and their interactions in the climate system, it is imperative that the global Earth system models accurately represent processes associated with them. This is an important prerequisite if we are to narrow the uncertainties in future climate projections. In practice, this means that continuous model evaluations and improvements grounded in observations are necessary. Numerous studies in the past few decades have shown both the usability and the limitations of utilizing satellite-based observations in understanding and evaluating aerosol–cloud interactions, particularly under varying meteorological and satellite sensor sensitivity paradigms. Furthermore, the vast range of spatio-temporal scales at which aerosol and cloud processes occur adds another dimension to the challenges faced when evaluating climate models. In this context, the aim of this study is two-fold. (1) We evaluate the most recent, significant changes in the representation of aerosol and cloud processes implemented in the EC-Earth3-AerChem model in the framework of the EU project FORCeS compared with its previous CMIP6 version (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6; https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/, last access: 13 February 2019). We focus particularly on evaluating cloud physical properties and radiative effects, wherever possible, using a satellite simulator. We report on the overall improvements in the EC-Earth3-AerChem model. In particular, the strong warm bias chronically seen over the Southern Ocean is reduced significantly. (2) A statistical, maximum covariance analysis is carried out between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud droplet (CD) effective radius based on the recent EC-Earth3-AerChem/FORCeS simulation to understand to what extent the Twomey effect can manifest itself in the larger spatio-temporal scales. We focus on the three oceanic low-level cloud regimes that are important due to their strong net cooling effect and where pollution outflow from the nearby continent is simultaneously pervasive. We report that the statistical covariability between AOD and CD effective radius is indeed dominantly visible even at the climate scale when the aerosol amount and composition are favourably preconditioned to allow for aerosol–cloud interactions. Despite this strong covariability, our analysis shows a strong cooling/warming in shortwave cloud radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere in our study regions associated with an increase/decrease in CD effective radius. This cooling/warming can be attributed to the increase/decrease in low cloud fraction, in line with previous observational studies.