A nomogram based on clinicopathological features and serological indicators predicting breast pathologic complete response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer

Abstract

Abstract A single tumor marker is not enough to predict the breast pathologic complete response (bpCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients. We aimed to establish a nomogram based on multiple clinicopathological features and routine serological indicators to predict bpCR after NAC in breast cancer patients. Data on clinical factors and laboratory indices of 130 breast cancer patients who underwent NAC and surgery in First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from July 2017 to July 2019 were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified 11 independent indicators: body mass index, carbohydrate antigen 125, total protein, blood urea nitrogen, cystatin C, serum potassium, serum phosphorus, platelet distribution width, activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, and hepatitis B surface antibodies. The nomogram was established based on these indicators. The 1000 bootstrap resampling internal verification calibration curve and the GiViTI calibration belt showed that the model was well calibrated. The Brier score of 0.095 indicated that the nomogram had a high accuracy. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.941 (95% confidence interval: 0.900–0.982) showed good discrimination of the model. In conclusion, this nomogram showed high accuracy and specificity and did not increase the economic burden of patients, thereby having a high clinical application value.