Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of Cooling Demand in Multi-Chiller System Using Downside Risk Constraints Method

Abstract

The optimal performance of a multi-chiller system (MCS) is the crucial factor in managing the expected power consumption (EPC). Also, the uncertainty of cooling demand in the industrial or residential sector plays a crucial role, which should be modeled and managed. So, the stochastic risk-constrained performance of the optimal chiller loading is studied in an uncertain environment in this paper. Scenario-based stochastic programming is applied to the provided case study to model the cooling demand uncertainty (CDU), and the downside risk constraints (DRC) are implemented to model the associated risks. The risk-averse performance of the MCS is compared with the risk-neutral one to show the positive effects of the DRC. The proposed model is implemented under the DICOPT solver in GAMS software. The comparison results show that the expected power consumption of MCS is increased slowly, while the expected risk-in-power consumption (ERIPC) is decreased promptly.

Keywords

• Cooling demand uncertainty (CDU)
• downside risk constraints (DRC)
• expected power consumption (EPC)
• expected risk-in-power consumption (ERIPC)
• multi-chiller system (MCS)
• risk-neutral and risk-averse performances