Science of Tsunami Hazards (Aug 2018)
EVALUATION OF TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BLACK SEA BY POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC UNDERWATER EARTHQUAKES
Abstract
The present study deals with the numerical simulation of generation and propagation of tsunami waves from hypothetical earthquake sources along the western coast of the Black Sea. Potential strong earthquakes with a magnitude M = 7.3 with sources localized both in the regions of historical earthquakes and regions determined by the basic geostructures of the Caucasian and Crimean coasts are considered. The mechanism of earthquake realization is considered in the framework of the keyboard block model of the earthquake source. The source is assumed to be three-block, with different character of the motion of the keyboard blocks for each of the considered scenarios of the earthquake. For each scenario, numerical simulation of tsunami source generation and further tsunami wave propagation to the west coast were carried out. Histograms of the wave height distribution along the entire coastline were obtained, and the results obtained were compared to determine the most dangerous parts of the coast from strong earthquakes. The wavelet analysis of the wave characteristics obtained for each scenario was carried out. Wave fields near the cities of Varna and Odessa are analyzed from far-fleld and mid-field seismic sources and the intensity of wave processes is estimated.
