Global variation in early epidemic growth rates and reproduction number of seasonal influenza

Abstract

Background: Little is known about global variation in early epidemic growth rates and effective reproduction numbers (Re) of seasonal influenza. We aimed to estimate global variation in Re of influenza type A and B during a single period. Methods: Country influenza detection time series from September 2017 through January 2019 were obtained from an international database. Type A and B epidemics by country were selected on the basis of Re estimates for a five-week moving window, advanced by week. Associations of Re with absolute latitude, human development index, percent of the population aged <15 years, and percent of those living in rural areas in each country were assessed. Results: Time series were included for 119 of 169 available countries. There were 100 countries with influenza A and 79 with B epidemics. Median Re for both influenza A and B epidemics was 1.23 (ranges: A 1.10, 1.60; B 1.06, 1.58). Re of influenza B but not A was independently associated with absolute latitude, increasing by 0.022 (95% confidence interval 0.002, 0.043) per 10 degrees. Conclusion: The Re of influenza A and B were similar. Only the Re of influenza B was associated with country characteristics, which was increasing with distance from the equator. The approach may be suitable for continuous Re surveillance.

Keywords

• Seasonal influenza
• Effective reproduction number
• Epidemic dynamics
• Geographic variation
• Influenza type