The Gambler’s Fallacy

Abstract

I offer a conceptual study of Aristotle’s Sea Battle Paradox and propose that analysis of the paradox, as well as of its various solutions, can help to shed light on the psychology behind and the structure of the gambler’s fallacy. I compare Aristotle’s response to the paradox with Kierkegaard’s subsequent response in his chapter of Philosophical Fragments “Is the Past More Necessary than the Future?” I argue that proponents of each solution lead us to a different diagnosis of the gambler’s preoccupation with predetermination and future determination.

Keywords

• The Gambler's Fallacy
• The Sea Battle Paradox
• Possibility
• Necessity
• Aristotle
• Kierkegaard