Sustainable Futures (Dec 2025)
The impact of China’s high-standard farmland construction plan on low-carbon development in agriculture
Abstract
The high-input, high-output agricultural production model has intensified ecological pressure on agriculture, posing a significant threat to environmental sustainability. Among these issues, agricultural carbon emissions have also garnered widespread attention. Based on panel data from 31 provinces from 2004 to 2022, this study examines the impact, mechanisms, and heterogeneity of a large-scale agricultural infrastructure investment project in China—the High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) plan—on agricultural carbon emissions intensity. The findings include: (1) The improvement in the HSFC level in China is significant, but there are pronounced regional differences. The trend of decreasing agricultural carbon emissions intensity is notable, showing a “high in the north, low in the south” pattern. (2) The HSFC level significantly negatively affects agricultural carbon emissions intensity at 1 %. From an economic perspective, for each unit increase in the HSFC level, the agricultural carbon emissions intensity decreases by approximately 27.0 %, and this result has passed multiple robustness tests. (3) Agricultural specialization and total factor productivity are key mechanisms for reducing agricultural carbon emissions intensity through the HSFC level. Among these, the improvement of agricultural technical efficiency plays an important role. (4) In areas with high carbon intensity, the emission reduction effect of the HSFC level is poor. Moreover, it can significantly reduce the carbon emissions intensity caused by using fertilizers, pesticides, and diesel, but it has an increasing effect on the use of plastic film. Finally, in northern China, the main grain-producing areas and temperate regions, the carbon reduction effect of the HSFC level is more significant. Based on research findings, this study suggests strengthening the collaborative mechanism between the HSFC plan and green agricultural development, promoting agricultural specialization, and improving the agricultural total factor productivity to achieve low-carbon agricultural development.
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