علوم آب و خاک (Sep 2023)
Analysis of the Temporal-Spatial Trend of Frequency of Daily Extremes Precipitation in Iran
Abstract
Identifying the behavior of precipitation is one of the most important planning principles related to water resources. In this research, an attempt was made to analyze the trend of time changes in extreme rainfall profiles of the country by using the daily rainfall data of 3423 synoptic, climatology, and rain gauge stations for the period from 1970 to 2016 and by performing interpolation using the kriging method. Then, using percentile profiles (percentile less than 10, less than 25, 25 to 75, 75 to 90, and above 90) and regression analysis, changes in the frequency of member days of each of the percentile methods over time were calculated and mapped. The results showed that during the studied period, 86.6% of cells associated with days with the tenth percentile or less in the country had an increasing trend. On the other hand, the pixels associated with days with the 90th percentile and more have shown an increasing trend. Considering that the pixels with the 25th, 25th-75th percentiles (normal), and 75th percentile have shown a decreasing trend in terms of the number of days in their group, it can be concluded that the country's rainfall conditions and the days with rainfall are towards the limit values has moved and the possibility of drought or destructive floods has increased in the country.
