On the Non‐Linear Nature of Long‐Term Sea Surface Temperature Global Trends

Abstract

Abstract The year‐to‐year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non‐linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non‐linear, long‐term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST changes that are impossible to identify by linear techniques. Our analysis identifies inhomogeneous patterns of SST evolution. For instance, in most equatorial regions, including the western Pacific, the acceleration of the warming is positive, and sustained warming replaces the cooling at the beginning of the records. On the contrary, the warming acceleration in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is negative, indicating a sustained warming at the beginning of the record that weakens over the years, resulting in a stagnated warming or even a cooling in recent years. We identify a strong warming with a negative acceleration for the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that this warming is part of the multidecadal variability of SST rather than a long‐term trend.

Keywords

• non‐linear SST trends
• global warming patterns
• warming acceleration
• long‐term warming