Similarities and differences between the evolutions of the average wheat productions in Romania, South-West Oltenia and Dolj. ARMA models

Abstract

The evolutions of crop productions are influenced by a series of both deterministic and stochastic factors, so the data series of these evolutions are variable with significant random components. Starting from this consideration, the paper comparatively analyzes the evolutions of the average annual wheat production per hectare at the level of Romania and the South-West Oltenia development region, as well as at the level of Dolj county, component of this region. The main objective is to identify and analyze trend components, based on regression models, as well as random components, based on autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models in order to identify similarities and differences between the evolutions of average wheat production per hectare in the last two decades. . The conclusion is that, although the evolution trends are similar, the random components highlight differences between the evolutions registered in Romania and in the South-West Oltenia region, which highlights the significant impact of specific random factors

Keywords

• crop production
• wheat
• regression
• arma