Risk factors associated with dengue complications and death: A cohort study in Peru.

Abstract

BackgroundDengue has emerged as an unprecedented epidemic in Peru, and it is anticipated that this issue will escalate further owing to climate change. This study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with death from dengue in patients treated at Hospital II in Pucallpa, Peru.MethodologyThis retrospective cohort study collected information from the medical records of patients with a diagnosis of dengue treated at Hospital II Pucallpa-Peru between January 2019 and March 2023. The primary outcome was death, and the secondary outcome was death, development of severe dengue, or Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Cox regression models were used to determine risk factors.FindingsThe clinical records of 152 patients were evaluated, with a median age of 27.5 years (interquartile range, 11-45). Among all patients, 29 (19.1%) developed severe dengue, 31 (20.4%) were admitted to the ICU, and 13 (8.6%) died during follow-up. In the survival analysis, bilirubin >1.2 mg/dL was associated with a higher risk of death aHR: 11.38 (95% CI: 1.2 106.8). Additionally, factors associated with poor prognosis included having 1 to 3 comorbidities aRR: 1.92 (1.2 to 3.2), AST ≥251 U/L aRR: 6.79 (2.2 to 21.4), history of previous dengue aRR: 1.84 (1.0 to 3.3), and fibrinogen ≥400 mg/dL aRR: 2.23 (1.2 to 4.1).SignificanceElevated bilirubin was associated with death from dengue, whereas an increase in comorbidities and a history of previous dengue were related to a poor prognosis of the disease. Early identification of severe dengue would be more feasible with improved access to laboratory testing, particularly in tropical areas with a high dengue incidence.