Intelligent Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Reentry Glide Target Based on Intention Inference

Abstract

Aimed at the problem of the insufficient utilization of intention information and flight data for the trajectory prediction of a reentry glide target, an intelligent trajectory prediction algorithm based on intention inference was proposed. Firstly, a control parameter prediction network was developed to predict the variation of the control parameter values. Secondly, based on the Gaussian mixture model and Dubins circle, the importance of strategic places was modeled, the functional relationship between the strategic places and trajectories was established, and the influence factors of target threat were analyzed. Subsequently, an intention inference network was designed, which can accurately identify the key point the target intends to attack and realize the nonlinear calculation of the target’s threat value. Finally, according to the common guidance law of reentry glide target, the lateral sign-variation rule was designed to carry out the target trajectory prediction based on intention inference. Simulation revealed that the parameter prediction network designed in this paper can realize the modification of filtering control parameters and effectively predict the value of these parameters. Moreover, taking the result of intention inference network, trajectory prediction in different prediction cases was accomplished. The maximal error of spatial distance (MESD) of the proposed method was less than 9 km when the prediction time was 100 s, and the best result was obtained in the long-term prediction. Compared with other mainstream prediction methods, the proposed method obtained the best prediction accuracy.

Keywords

• reentry glide target
• trajectory prediction
• intention inference
• importance of strategic places
• temporal sequence prediction network