Predicting Energy Demand Using Machine Learning: Exploring Temporal and Weather-Related Patterns, Variations, and Impacts

Abstract

This study aims to develop models for predicting hourly energy demand in the State of Connecticut, USA from 2011 to 2021 using machine learning algorithms inputted with airport weather stations’ data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), demand data from ISO New England (ISO-NE). We built and evaluated nine different model experiments for each machine learning algorithm for each hour of the day addressing energy demand patterns, variations between workdays and weekends, and COVID-19 impacts. Error metrics analysis results highlighted that the GBR model demonstrated better performance compared to the MPR and RFR models. Incorporating both temporal and weather features in the models resulted in a noticeable improvement in error metrics. A consistent overestimation trend was observed for all models during the validation period (2018–2019) which may be attributed to energy efficiency measures and integration of behind-the-meter generation, with a further notable increase in overestimation following the onset of COVID-19 due to a change of habits during the pandemic in addition to decarbonization initiatives in the State. This study emphasizes the need for adapting models to dynamic consumption and weather patterns for improved grid management.

Keywords

• Energy demand
• machine learning
• weather stations
• ISO New England
• COVID-19
• Bayesian optimization