ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN TRENDS AND FORECASTING THE LEVEL OF POVERTY OF THE POPULATION OF THE ASTRAKHAN REGION ON THE BASIS OF TIME SERIES METHODS

Abstract

The methodical bases of research and forecast of the level of poverty are stated in the article. The great attention is focused on the analysis of the main trends and predicting the level of poverty on the basis of time series. The author offer two predictive models of poverty level in Astrakhan region on the basis of trend analysis of time series and poverty by using the exponential smoothing - the multiplicative Holt-Winters model with a linear increase.

Keywords

• бедность насе ления
• анализ основной тенденции
• прогнозирование
• временные ряды
• трендовый анализ
• метода экспонен циального сглаживания
• poverty of the population
• the main trend analysis
• forecasting
• time series
• trend analysis
• exponential smoothing method