Estimating health-related costs of ten US climate-sensitive events in 2012: a retrospective study

Abstract

Background: Climate change threatens human health, but there is a lack of evidence on the economic toll of these risks. Health-related cost estimates for climate-sensitive impacts illuminate an understudied impact of climate change and highlight how this threat is affecting sectors beyond property and infrastructure. Furthermore, cost estimates can guide health interventions and help public health professionals assess whether climate change adaptation measures are achieving their intended benefits. Methods: We estimate mortality and morbidity costs associated with ten climate-sensitive case studies spanning eleven US states in 2012 (when the country experienced some of its warmest weather to date); the case studies include wildfires, extreme heat, West Nile Virus and Lyme disease, extreme precipitation and flooding, harmful algal blooms, allergenic pollen, ozone air pollution, and a major hurricane. We estimate the mortality and morbidity associated with each event using data reported in peer-reviewed epidemiology studies, state and federal data, and environmental public health tracking network data collected by state public health agencies. We augment this information with imputed incidence data from national healthcare utilisation statistics. Findings: Applying value of a statistical life and cost-of-illness approaches to publicly-available data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, we estimate total health-related costs associated with these case studies (from 917 deaths, 20 568 hospitalisations and 17 857 emergency department visits) of about $10·0 billion in 2018 dollars, with a sensitivity range of $2·7 billion to $24·6 billion. Interpretation: By better characterising these health damages in economic terms, this work helps characterise the burden that climate change already places on human health. In doing so, we provide a quantitative framework for broader estimation of climate-sensitive health-related costs. Expanded quantification of the budgetary pressures posed by climate change can help decision makers engage with the scale of the challenge and prioritise efficient adaptation strategies to protect public health. Funding: None.