European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet

Abstract

Abstract Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea‐ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic‐European region to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea‐ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic‐European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic‐European response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic‐European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss.

Keywords

• Arctic sea‐ice loss
• North Atlantic jet
• model uncertainties
• temperature and precipitation
• storm track activity