Analysis on energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy and China Dream target

Abstract

A quantitative model was applied to analyze the energy demand and CO2 emissions in China following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016–2030) and long-term economic and social development target China Dream. Results showed that 1) toward the 2050 China Dream target, total final energy consumption is expected to peak at 3.9 Gtce in 2030 and remain stable until 2050, whereas total primary energy consumption is expected to reach an upper platform by 2040 and around 5.8 Gtce by 2050; 2) the proportion of non-fossil fuels is expected to reach approximately 50% and that of natural gas to reach more than 16% by 2050; 3) CO2 emissions from energy use are expected to peak at 9.6 Gt by no later than 2030 and then gradually decline to 6.7 Gt by 2050. Keywords: China energy strategy, China Dream strategy, CO2 emission pathway, Energy demand and supply model