Smooth transition regression model relating inflation to economic growth in Tunisia

Abstract

Abstract Since its independence, Tunisia has embarked on monetary and financial sector reforms aimed at boosting economic growth. However, these reforms have not been effective due to inflation pressures in this country. Thus, this paper examines the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth between 1965 and 2019, using the non-linear logistic smooth transition regression model and considering inflation as a threshold financial development. The results show the existence of a non-linear abrupt relationship with an inflation threshold equal to 3.63%. Specifically, when inflation is below 3.63%, all variables, including inflation, have a significant and positive impact on economic growth. However, when inflation exceeds the estimated threshold, inflation has a significant and negative impact with an elasticity equal to − 0.365. To effectively manage inflation, the Tunisian authorities are encouraged to set and embrace specific inflation targets as a goal. This approach aims to mitigate inflationary pressures and foster a favourable environment for financial development in Tunisia, thereby promoting economic growth. Hence, it becomes imperative to implement such measures that alleviate inflationary pressures and drive economic growth through the facilitation of development finance by the banking sector.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Economic growth
• Smooth transition regression