Impacts of Weather Variability on the International Tourism Receipts—Evidence from Ethiopia (1995–2019)

Abstract

Every economic sector is susceptible to the direct or indirect effects of weather variability, and the tourism sector is no exception. In fact, the tourism industry is considered to be more vulnerable to the effects of weather variability than the general economy, with changes in weather patterns, extreme events, and environmental degradation offering substantial obstacles. Ethiopia’s tourism industry, like many others, faces challenges from weather variability. This study investigates the short- and long-term effects of weather variability on Ethiopia’s international tourism receipts. Utilizing data from 1995 to 2019, the research employs a vector error correction model to analyze the relationships between weather variables (temperature, rainfall), economic factors (GDP growth, inflation), political stability, and tourist arrivals. The findings reveal that in the long run, higher temperatures, rainfall, and inflation have negative impacts on tourism receipts, while political stability and past tourist arrivals have positive effects. Short-term trends mirror these, with the addition of GDP growth not showing a significant impact. To ensure the sustainability of tourism in Ethiopia, the study emphasizes the importance of understanding weather’s influence, developing adaptation strategies, and promoting sustainable tourism practices.

Keywords

• international tourism
• vector error correction model
• weather variability
• Ethiopia