A new method for evaluating the firing precision of multiple launch rocket system based on Bayesian theory

Abstract

How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system. A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. First of all, a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process. A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients. The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution, and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively. With the simulation tests, the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.

Keywords

• Multiple launch rocket system
• Bayesian theory
• Simulation credibility
• Mixed prior distribution
• Firing precision