Determination of collected quantities of wild strawbery, bluberry and juniper in Serbia in relation to different scenarios of climate change

Abstract

This study examines the influence of some climate elements on the collected quantities of blueberry, wild strawberry and juniper in Serbia. The main objective of the research is to predict the quantity of selected forest fruits depending on the different climate change scenarios (A1Bmin, A1Bmax, A2min and A2max). The general (modeling method), basic (dialectical) and specific scientific methods (induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, abstraction and concretization) were used. Regression models were used in data processing, where the focus was on the statistical significance of the correlation coefficient in relation to the statistical significance of the parameters. The research found that, in the coming period, with the increase in temperature and precipitation, an increase in the collected amount of wild strawberries and blueberries could be expected, and the decline of juniper. Longer-term forecasts indicate expected growth with wild strawberries and blueberries with a tendency to slow down after 2040, and expected decline with juniper, with the same slow down tendency after 2040. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 43007Studies of climate changes and their impact on the environment - monitoring impacts, adaptation and mitigation, sub-project No. 43007/16-III: Socio-economic development, mitigation and adaptation to climate change]

Keywords

• wild strawberry
• blueberry
• juniper
• temperature
• precipitation
• climate
• growth rate