Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Boko Haram Attacks and its Effects on Education in Northern Nigeria (2009-2020)

Abstract

The persistent attacks from Boko Haram have been issues of concern to the Nigerian government and its citizens. The study assessed spatio-temporal pattern of attacks by Boko-Haram insurgents and its effects on education in the Northern Region of Nigeria between 2009 and 2020 with specific objectives of ascertaining the pattern of the attacks, and appraising the trend of attacks’ fatalities over time, and reviewing the effects of the attacks on education. The study covered all three geopolitical zones (19 States with FCT) in the Northern Region of Nigeria. Data on Boko-Haram attacks were obtained from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) database. Nearest Neighbourhood Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression on ArcGIS 10.8 were analytical techniques adopted in this study. Results with a negative Z-value of -88.62 indicated the clustered pattern of Boko-Haram at an observed mean distance of 1213 metres from one attack to another. There were 28 792 reported fatalities due to Boko-Haram attacks from 2009 and 2020. Boko Haram has affected the education system of the Northern Region of Nigeria through attacks and abduction of students. The study revealed that geospatial technology has the potential to analyse and monitor insecurity issues, and it is thus recommended that geospatial technology need to be integrated into security surveillance and operation to curb the challenges of insecurity on education, not only in the northern region but the entire space of Nigeria, so that Sustainable Development Goal Four (quality education for all) can be achieved.

Keywords

• boko-haram
• fatalities
• attack
• sdgs
• education
• geospatial technology