Diurnal Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Events under Different Synoptic Circulation Patterns in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in Summer

Abstract

Aiming at the rainstorm days (≥50 mm/d) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2010–2020, the obliquely rotated principal component in T-mode (PCT) method is used to classify the daily mean 850 hPa geopotential height, including Type 1 (vortex/shear line), Type 2 (frontal surface), Type 3 (warm shear line), Type 4 (warm inverse trough line), Type 5 (typhoon-westerly trough), and Type 6 (easterly wave). We studied the weather system configurations of different synoptic circulation patterns, their long-term trends, and their impacts on diurnal variations of heavy precipitation and drew the following conclusions: Type 1, Type 2, or Type 3 shows balanced double-peak frequencies of the start time of heavy precipitation during 06:00–08:00 BT and around 17:00 BT, respectively. For Type 1, dynamical lifting and thermal lifting play balanced roles, while for Type 2 and Type 3, dynamical lifting plays a key role. The number of rainstorm stations for Type 1 shows a slight increasing trend, while that for Type 2 or Type 3 shows a significant increasing trend. Type 4, Type 5, or Type 6 show a significant single peak frequency of the start time during 15:00–16:00. Type 5 and Type 6 are mainly affected by dynamical lifting along with favorable cape values, which can trigger rainstorms. The number of rainstorm stations for Type 4 or Type 6 shows a decreasing trend (that for Type 4 is more significant), while that for Type 5 shows a slightly increasing trend.

Keywords

• PCT
• synoptic circulation patterns
• Bayesian model averaging
• heavy rainfall