Asymmetric Effect of Business Cycles on Population Health: Evidence From the ASEAN Countries

Abstract

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This study investigates the asymmetric effects of business cycles (measured by real GDP per capita) on population health (measured by life expectancy at birth) from the ASEAN countries, namely, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The panel vector error correction model, together with various panel unit root tests and cointegration tests, suggested a hidden cointegrated relationship between life expectancy at birth and the positive and negative components of real GDP per capita, and the asymmetric effects of business cycles on population health were identified in both in the short run and in the long run. Policymakers should focus on the harmful effects of business cycles on population health, and government interventions should be more forceful in times of economic expansion than during periods of economic recession.

Keywords

• asymmetry
• business cycles
• ASEAN
• hidden cointegration
• panel vector error correction model