Elevated risk of tropical cyclone precipitation and pluvial flood in Houston under global warming

Abstract

Pluvial floods generated by tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the major concerns for coastal communities. Choosing Houston as an example, we demonstrate that there will be significantly elevated risk of TC rainfall and flood in the future warming world by coupling downscaled TCs from Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models with physical hydrological models. We find that slower TC translation speed, more frequent stalling, greater TC frequency, and increased rain rate are major contributors to increased TC rainfall risk and flood risk. The TC flood risk increases more than the rainfall. Smaller watersheds with a high degree of urbanization are particularly vulnerable to future changes in TC floods in a warming world.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• precipitation
• flood
• risk
• global warming
• CMIP6