Panel threshold effect of climate variability on agricultural output in Eastern African countries

Abstract

Recent scientific literature shows that in many developing countries, variability in rainfall and temperature in growing season has detrimental effects on agricultural output, especially when the variability is high. It is yet unclear to what extent or threshold these variations impair the agricultural productivity in some parts of Africa. In this study, we answer this research question using a dynamic panel threshold model on a panel dataset of East African countries for the period 1961–2020. We incorporate climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. The empirical results indicate that growing rainfall variability has significant effects on agricultural output. More specifically, we found a significant negative effect from rainfall variability in spring and summer, when precipitation variability exceeds thresholds of −0.533 mL and −0.902 mL respectively. However, these effects are indistinguishable from zero in fall season. Regarding a growing-season temperature variability, we found no significant effects across seasons. Policy implications are discussed.

Keywords

• Adaptation policy
• climate change
• Eastern Africa
• dynamic panel threshold
• Lanouar Charfeddine, Qatar University, Qatar
• Agriculture and Food