Development of a Prediction Model for Positive Surgical Margin in Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Abstract

A positive surgical margin (PSM) is reported to have some connection to the occurrence of biochemical recurrence and tumor metastasis in prostate cancer after the operation. There are no clinically usable models and the study is to predict the probability of PSM after robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP) based on preoperative examinations. It is a retrospective cohort from a single center. The Lasso method was applied for variable screening; logistic regression was employed to establish the final model; the strengthened bootstrap method was adopted for model internal verification; the nomogram and web calculator were used to visualize the model. All the statistical analyses were based on the R-4.1.2. The main outcome was a pathologically confirmed PSM. There were 151 PSMs in the 903 patients, for an overall positive rate of 151/903 = 16.7%; 0.727 was the adjusted C statistic, and the Brier value was 0.126. Hence, we have developed and validated a predictive model for PSM after RALP for prostate cancer that can be used in clinical practice. In the meantime, we observed that the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) score, Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score, and Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) were the independent risk factors for PSM.

Keywords

• prediction model
• positive surgical margin (PSM)
• robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP)