Tracing the origin and dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Serbia

Abstract

Since the first report of HIV infection in Serbia in 1985, the HIV-1 epidemic was very dynamic, changing the pattern in subtype distribution and prevailing transmission routes. To better understand the origin and epidemiological dynamics of HIV-1, we analyzed 266 (pol) sequences from Serbian patients diagnosed over a period of 14 years. Subtype distribution in Serbia is still marked by a prevailing subtype B genetic form. The transmission pattern, however, has changed from being intravenous drug user (IVDU) - driven to predominantly sexual transmission. The estimated time of initial founder strain introduction of sequences from Serbian IVDUs and MSM (men who have sex with men) is similar and dates back to the early 1980s, while introduction of subtype C occurred much more recently. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 175024]

Keywords

• Serbian epidemic
• subtype distribution
• HIV-1 transmission
• Bayesian coalescent analyses