Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

Abstract

Abstract Background The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India. Method Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19. Result COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand. Conclusion COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Premature mortality
• Life expectancy
• YPLL
• DALY
• Maharashtra