Global Ecology and Conservation (Jun 2023)
Habitats change of Tibetan antelope and its influencing factors on the North Tibetan Plateau from 2020 to 2050
Abstract
As an alpine environment sensitive to global climate change and human activities, habitats of Tibetan antelope are exposed to a variety of challenges. Wintering and calving habitats of Tibetan antelopes in 2020 and 2050 on the North Tibetan Plateau (NTP), China were simulated with Maxent model using data of sites where Tibetan antelopes were present; contribution of environmental variables to the habitats distribution in current and future scenarios was analyzed via jackknife test; and current levels of human disturbances were quantified with InVEST model. Conclusions were: 1) in 2020, wintering habitats of Tibetan antelope concentrated in the central and southern parts of the NTP, covered an area of 216,000 km2. The calving habitats, scattered extensively in the NTP, covered an area of 348,768 km2. Mean precipitation of the warmest quarter, land cover and NPP were predicted to be large contributors to habitats. 2) During 2020–2050, the wintering habitats coverage was projected to increase 5.93 %, 12.87 % and 4.52 %, and the calving habitats to increase 5.20 %, 8.77 % and 21.23 %, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The wintering habitats was predicted to expand by roughly 27,000 km2 and the calving habitats by 30,500 km2 in 2050. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter, land cover, NPP, and distance from water sources were predicted to be large contributors to habitats. 3) In 2020, human activities in the middle and southern parts of the NTP were more intense compared to those in the northern parts. Disturbed areas accounted for 48 % of the total wintering habitats, and 1/3 of the total calving habitats, respectively. In the future, human activities in the middle and southern parts of the NTP may intensify, concurrent with the predicted expansion of antelope habitats, resulting in exacerbation of conflicts between community development and wildlife conservation. In the northern parts of NTP, human disturbance may decrease. For better understanding habitats scenarios, we need to gather more data on distribution patterns and behavioral ecology of Tibetan antelope within the wintering and calving seasons. We recommend setting up systems for monitoring habitats changes of Tibetan antelope that could help in defining the national park area to cover critical antelope habitats and manage herdsmen and livestock uses of the areas within the carrying capacity of grasslands, particularly through diversification of livelihoods and support to green development of local communities.
