Nature Communications (Jun 2023)
Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome
- Mariana García Criado,
- Isla H. Myers-Smith,
- Anne D. Bjorkman,
- Signe Normand,
- Anne Blach-Overgaard,
- Haydn J. D. Thomas,
- Anu Eskelinen,
- Konsta Happonen,
- Juha M. Alatalo,
- Alba Anadon-Rosell,
- Isabelle Aubin,
- Mariska te Beest,
- Katlyn R. Betway-May,
- Daan Blok,
- Allan Buras,
- Bruno E. L. Cerabolini,
- Katherine Christie,
- J. Hans C. Cornelissen,
- Bruce C. Forbes,
- Esther R. Frei,
- Paul Grogan,
- Luise Hermanutz,
- Robert D. Hollister,
- James Hudson,
- Maitane Iturrate-Garcia,
- Elina Kaarlejärvi,
- Michael Kleyer,
- Laurent J. Lamarque,
- Jonas J. Lembrechts,
- Esther Lévesque,
- Miska Luoto,
- Petr Macek,
- Jeremy L. May,
- Janet S. Prevéy,
- Gabriela Schaepman-Strub,
- Serge N. Sheremetiev,
- Laura Siegwart Collier,
- Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia,
- Andrew Trant,
- Susanna E. Venn,
- Anna-Maria Virkkala
Affiliations
- Mariana García Criado
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh
- Isla H. Myers-Smith
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh
- Anne D. Bjorkman
- Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg
- Signe Normand
- Department of Biology, Aarhus University
- Anne Blach-Overgaard
- Department of Biology, Aarhus University
- Haydn J. D. Thomas
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh
- Anu Eskelinen
- Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
- Konsta Happonen
- Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg
- Juha M. Alatalo
- Environmental Science Center, Qatar University
- Alba Anadon-Rosell
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès
- Isabelle Aubin
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre
- Mariska te Beest
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University
- Katlyn R. Betway-May
- Biology Department, Grand Valley State University
- Daan Blok
- Dutch Research Council (NWO)
- Allan Buras
- Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan
- Bruno E. L. Cerabolini
- Department of Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, University of Insubria
- Katherine Christie
- Threatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program, Alaska Department of Fish and Game
- J. Hans C. Cornelissen
- Section Systems Ecology, Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment (A-LIFE), Vrije Universiteit
- Bruce C. Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
- Esther R. Frei
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
- Paul Grogan
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University, Kingston
- Luise Hermanutz
- Department of Biology, Memorial University
- Robert D. Hollister
- Biology Department, Grand Valley State University
- James Hudson
- Government of British Columbia
- Maitane Iturrate-Garcia
- Department of Chemical and Biological Metrology, Federal Institute of Metrology METAS
- Elina Kaarlejärvi
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki
- Michael Kleyer
- Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg
- Laurent J. Lamarque
- Département des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières
- Jonas J. Lembrechts
- Research Group Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), University of Antwerp
- Esther Lévesque
- Département des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières
- Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki
- Petr Macek
- Institute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences
- Jeremy L. May
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University
- Janet S. Prevéy
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
- Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich
- Serge N. Sheremetiev
- Komarov Botanical Institute
- Laura Siegwart Collier
- Department of Biology, Memorial University
- Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia
- Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University
- Andrew Trant
- School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo
- Susanna E. Venn
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University
- Anna-Maria Virkkala
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 14,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 17
Abstract
Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.
