Trend analysis of yield, production and cultivated area of cereal in Iran during the last 50 years and prediction of future situation

Abstract

Trends in cultivated area, yield and production of wheat, barley and rice as the main cereal crops of Iran were studied during 1350-1382 using time series analysis and the situation of future were predicted for 1382-1400 period. The results showed that country-level cultivated area of cereals is leveled off after and initial increase and the current area under cultivation will be maintained until year 1400. However, cultivated area of irrigated wheat and rice will be increased slightly. During the last 32 years cereals yield is increased considerably. Mean annual rate of yield increase was much higher for irrigated cereals (62.5 kg year-1) and rice (69.7 kg year-1) compared to rainfed cereals (12.6 kg year-1), this incremental trend will be continued towards year 1400. The increase of cereal yield in spite of constant cultivated area is led to increase in total production and it was predicted that total cereal production of country will be exceed 26 million tons in target year of 1400. However, per capita cereal production which was at its highest in the mid years of the study period, was decreased later and at present is about 310 kg which is not much different from the baseline year (1350). Per capita production of cereals will remain unchanged until year 1400 because of high predicted population growth rate.