Lightning Cessation Guidance Using Polarimetric Radar Data and Lightning Mapping Array in the Washington, D.C. Area

Abstract

Polarimetric radar data and total lightning data are used to develop lightning cessation guidance for isolated cells in the Washington, D.C. area. A total of 23 non-severe thunderstorms during the 2015–2017 warm seasons are analyzed. Radar and lightning data are superimposed using the Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information software to develop cessation algorithms. This includes using the hydrometeor classification algorithm to locate graupel for each convective cell. Results show that the three best-performing cessation algorithms use thresholds of (1) ZH ≥ 40 dBZ at −5 °C, (2) ZH ≥ 35 dBZ at −10 °C, and (3) graupel at −15 °C. Lightning is not expected 15 min after the threshold is no longer met for each algorithm. These algorithms are recommended only for isolated cells in the Washington, D.C. area. Further study needs to be completed to draw conclusions for other convective cell types and different geographic regions.

Keywords

• lightning
• radar
• forecasting