Dynamical behavior of fractional order SEIR epidemic model with multiple time delays and its stability analysis

Abstract

With multiple time delays, we investigated a Caputo fractional order dynamical system involving susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals. Positivity and boundedness are also theoretically demonstrated using Laplace transform and Mittag-Leffler function. The stability of the disease-free and epidemic equilibrium points has been studied for both delayed and non-delayed model. For generating numerical solutions to the model system, we used the Adam-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector technique. With the help of MATLAB (2018a), we were able to conduct graphical demonstrations and numerical simulations. The system displays Hopf bifurcation and the solutions are no longer periodic beyond a certain threshold value of the time delay parameters.

Keywords

• Seir model
• Stability analysis
• Hopf bifurcation
• Adam-bashforth-moulton predictor-corrector scheme
• Numerical Simulation