Application of interpretable machine learning for early prediction of prognosis in acute kidney injury

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop an algorithm using the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for the early prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Methods: This study gathered clinical data with AKI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) in the US between 2008 and 2019. All the data were further randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Seven machine learning methods were used to develop the models for assessing in-hospital mortality. The optimal model was selected based on its accuracy and area under the curve (AUC). The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) algorithm were utilized to interpret the optimal model. Results: A total of 22,360 patients with AKI were finally enrolled in this study (median age, 69.5 years; female, 42.8%). They were randomly split into a training cohort (16770, 75%) and a validation cohort (5590, 25%). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model achieved the best performance with an AUC of 0.890. The SHAP values showed that Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), blood urea nitrogen, cumulative urine output on Day 1 and age were the top 4 most important variables contributing to the XGBoost model. The LIME algorithm was used to explain the individualized predictions. Conclusions: Machine-learning models based on clinical features were developed and validated with great performance for the early prediction of a high risk of death in patients with AKI.

Keywords

• Machine learning
• Interpretability
• Acute kidney injury
• Critically illness
• Mortality