Survival Analysis of COVID-19 Patients in an Iranian Population

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a high rate of mortality, but data regarding its prognosis are scarce. This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with mortality and survival of COVID-19 patients in a southern province of Iran. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with a secondary database of 3172 people who were admitted to hospitals for COVID-19 treatment. Relative risk (RR) was computed to estimate mortality risk between groups, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival functions in different levels of categorical variables. Finally, the multivariable extended Cox model was employed to determine the factors that affected the survival of COVID-19 patients. Results: The 10- and 15-day survival rate of 3172 patients was 89% and 80%, respectively, and the median survival time was 30 days. Based on the extended Cox model, age, oxygen therapy, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive ventilation, chronic cardiac disease, chronic kidney disease, and cancer were the most important variables affecting the survival of COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Older people (older than 40 years) and those with comorbidities (e.g., chronic cardiac disease, chronic kidney disease, and cancer) had a higher mortality rate; therefore, health-related organizations need to plan for the prevention and early detection of comorbidities to reduce the burden of diseases such as the pandemic of COVID-19 as much as possible in the future.

Keywords

• covid-19
• epidemiology
• mortality
• survival