Exploring Advanced GARCH Models for Analyzing Asymmetric Volatility Dynamics for the Emerging Stock Market in Hungary: An Empirical Case Study

Abstract

The study was conducted on BUX Index volatility for the post-2008 (from 2011) global financial crisis period using advanced GARCH models (GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, IGARCH, PARCH, APARCH). Based on parameters and test results appropriate model was chosen (APARCH (1,1) at Student’s t distribution) to study volatility, the presence of asymmetry, leverage effect, volatility clustering, and decay factor. Test results were linked with the macro and microenvironment (Political instability, Geopolitical crisis, Unemployment, Inflation, COVID-19, Slowdown, etc.) of the index and unique features of the index have been discovered (Like a sudden huge dip between 2020-2022). The study through mathematical and econometrics terms establishes causal links among the variables affecting the index. The paper is relevant to both investors and policymakers as BUX is one of the most important indicators as far as stock market in Hungary is concerned.

Keywords

• asymmetry
• volatility
• leverage effect
• garch model
• aparch model
• bux index
• hungary stock market