Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to study the impact of climate change and other factors on rice production in South Korea

Abstract

This study aims to explore the impact of climate change, technology, and agricultural policy on rice production in South Korea. In the presence of a long-run relationship among variables, the results show that an increase in CO2 emissions increases rice production by 0.15%. The mean temperature raises rice production by 1.16%. The rainfall has an adverse impact on rice production which shows improper irrigation systems and weather forecasting reports. Similarly, for technical factors, the area under rice and fertilizer used in the study has a direct effect on rice production. The study suggests that the Korean government needs to implement new policies and acquire advanced technology for weather forecasting. The concerned authorities need to inform rice growers about future weather and climate changes. We recommend that Korea needs to provide virgin arable undivided land to deserving rice growers based on ownership and/or lease for future food security. Finally, the study recommends that legislators should recommend policies for sustainable food security with the introduction of new agricultural technologies and subsidies, along with the provision of new varieties of seeds that can absorb the adverse shock of climate change and ensure a suitable amount of food. HIGHLIGHTS Carbon dioxide emission improves the process of photosynthesis due to which rice production increases in Korea.; Rice production increases 1.16% with an increase in mean temperature in the long-run.; Adverse shock of rainfall on rice production shows the improper irrigation system and weather forecasting reports.; Cultivated area under rice has a noteworthy direct effect on rice production both in the short- and long-run.;

Keywords

• adf
• ardl
• climatic factors
• cointegration
• pp
• technical factors