THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RISK FACTORS OF PURULENT-SEPTIC COMPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The influence of several factors, impacting on the development of purulent-septic complications in newborns with congenital gastrointestinal tract malformations was studied. As independent variables they were chosen both binary and numeral ones. Furthermore, the authors investigated the combined effect of different factors of pre-admission (primary and secondary) medical care, which had shown a high possibility of influence on the complications development during the preliminary analysis. The total amount of various analyzed predicting factors of purulent-septic complications after surgical procedures was 42. Three main groups of risk factors were established. These groups were associated with: 1) type of the performed post-operative analgesia and child sex; 2) disturbances of the intestinal wall permeability; 3) disturbances of the intestinal wall perfusion. In order to develop an appropriate model the method of logistic regression with variables normalization quazi-Newton approach was used. This model has high enough possibilities to predict both positive (risk of purulent-septic complications) and negative (absence of such risk) results. The rate of correctly predicted cases ofcomplications is 76%, the rate of their absence — 84%.

Keywords

• новорожденные
• врожденные пороки развития желудочно-кишечного тракта
• i-fabp