Ziyuan Kexue (Jun 2024)
The effect of incremental land expansion and stock land redevelopment on urban economic growth
Abstract
[Objective] Against the backdrop of tightening incremental land resources, urban development is gradually shifting from relying on the external expansion of incremental land supply to focusing on the intensive model of redevelopment of stock land. This article attempts to explore the impact of incremental land expansion and redevelopment of stock land on urban economic growth at different stages of urban development, in order to provide useful references for the improvement of urban land supply policies. [Methods] Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture level cities from 2009 to 2021 in China, dual fixed effects and threshold effects model were constructed to explore the impact of incremental land expansion and stock land redevelopment on urban economic growth, threshold effects were analyzed at different stages of urban development and scale heterogeneity was analyzed. [Results] (1) The marginal contribution of redevelopment of stock land to economic growth is higher than that of incremental land expansion, and the impact is significant. (2) In the process of urban development, the expansion of incremental land and the redevelopment of existing land both have a population urbanization and per capita GDP threshold effect on urban economic growth. With the continuous improvement of population urbanization and per capita GDP level, the marginal contribution of incremental land expansion to urban economic growth continues to decline, while the marginal contribution of stock land redevelopment to economic growth continues to rise and gradually exceeds that of incremental land expansion. In terms of heterogeneity analysis, the above two threshold effects exist in cities of different scales, and have the same development trend as the national sample. Among them, the threshold value for large cities is higher than the national threshold value, and the national threshold value is higher than the threshold value for small and medium-sized cities. [Conclusion] The traditional externally expanding urban development model relying on incremental land expansion is unsustainable, and cities are gradually entering the era of stock; However, cities of different scales enter the stage of stock development at different times. It is necessary to adopt differentiated land supply strategies for different cities in order to better leverage the driving role of land resources on urban economy.
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