The response of annual minimum temperature on the eastern central Tibetan Plateau to large volcanic eruptions over the period 1380–2014 CE

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on global temperature; their consequences are of particular interest in regions that are especially sensitive to climate change, like the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we develop a temperature-sensitive tree-ring-width standard chronology covering the period 1348–2014 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii (Kom.)) samples collected from the Animaqin Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. We reconstruct the annual (prior August to current July) mean minimum temperature (Tmin) since 1380 CE and show that our reconstruction explains 58 % of the variance during the 1960–2014 calibration period. Our results demonstrate that in 77.8 % of cases in which a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 5 or greater occurs, temperature decreases in the year of or the year following the eruption. The results of the superposed epoch analysis also indicate that there is a high probability that the Tmin decreases for 2 years after a large volcanic eruption, especially when such eruptions occur in the Northern Hemisphere.