ASSESSMENT OF THE GROWING STOCK OF FOREST FUND LANDS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ANTHROPOGENIC RISKS: SOFTWARE AND METHODOLOGICAL SUPPORT

Abstract

The relevance. The task of providing automated accounting, assessment and forecasting of forest resources is one of the most important directions of the state strategy for the development of the forest complex. Creation of an automated information system capable of implementing a high-quality and full-fledged information process for collecting, processing, analyzing, modeling, forecasting and visualizing spatiotemporal data on the state of forest resources, taking into account the main risks of forestry, is one of the important mechanisms for improving the efficiency of forest management. The main aim: to create methodological and software for assessing the stock of wood resources on the lands of the forest fund, taking into account anthropogenic risks. Objects: forest plantations of the Chernorechensk district forestry of the Vsevolozhsky forestry of the Leningrad region. Methods. Based on the use of regression modeling methods, mathematical models of the dependence of the stock of plantings of various tree species on the average age of the stand in the forest allotment are obtained; the basis of the developed software is based on the author's methodological solutions for assessing and forecasting the stock of wood. Results. The application of the obtained dependencies for the Chernorechensk forestry of the Vsevolozhsky district of the Leningrad region made it possible to calculate the values of the wood stock as of 2011 and 2021, as well as to predict its values for 2031. A methodology for assessing fire damage on forest lands based on an integral risk indicator is proposed. Automation of the calculation of this indicator in the created program made it possible to differentiate forestry lands by three classes of fire risk. A zoning map of the territory of the object of research on the risk of continuous and unauthorized logging has been formed. The created software and methodological support can serve as a basis for the implementation of one of the main directions of the strategy for the development of the Russian forest complex in terms of creating a unified federal information system for accounting and forecasting the current increase in the stock of wood resources of the forest fund.

Keywords

• forest stands
• stock of stands
• automation of forest resources accounting
• anthropogenic risks
• fire assessment methodology