Hydrogen as a panacea for decarbonising everything? Exploring contested hydrogen pathways in Germany

Abstract

Technological change is often seen as part of the solution to problems of global sustainability. A wide-ranging literature on how path dependent—often fossil fuel-based—socio-technical configurations can be overcome by more sustainable configurations has emerged over the last two decades. One potential transition pathway to transform electricity, heat and mobility systems as well as industrial production is the use of hydrogen. In recent years, hydrogen has received increasing attention as part of decarbonisation strategies in many countries as well as by international organisations such as the International Energy Agency or the International Renewable Energy Agency. Also in Germany it has become a central component of climate change policy and is seen by some actors almost as a kind of panacea, where the use of hydrogen is expected to decarbonise a wide range of sectors. Policy makers have the ambition for Germany to become a leader in hydrogen development and therefore help to contribute to what Grubler called ‘grand patterns of technological change’. The aim of this paper is to analyse whether relevant actors share expectations for transition pathways based on hydrogen, which would foster wide diffusion. Our empirical analysis shows that there are multiple contested pathways, both in terms of how hydrogen is produced as well as in which applications or sectors it is to be used. This causes uncertainty and slows down hydrogen developments in Germany. We contribute to an emerging literature on the politics of contested transition pathways and also critically engage with Grubler’s ‘grand patterns’ argument. Results support the idea that the concept of socio-technical pathways allows to expose tensions between competing values and interests. The German government is under considerable pressure regarding competing visions on hydrogen transition pathways. A targeted political prioritisation of hydrogen applications could mitigate tensions and support a shared vision.

Keywords

• sustainability transitions
• transition pathways
• hydrogen
• expectations